Risk-neutral probabilities adjust future outcome odds for risk to compute expected asset values. These probabilities help determine fair prices for assets, especially derivatives. Unlike real-world ...

One of the big changes in election coverage that emerged in 2016 was the widespread use of predictions expressed as probabilities. Once the private vice of data geeks, just about everyone in the ...

Building a good sales forecast involves techniques that fall somewhere between science and art. While it is possible to construct a rigorous objective forecasting model, the human element in sales ...

Clinical trial transition probabilities, the probability that a drug product moves from one clinical phase to the next, are used to assess the efficiency of drug development and in the valuation of ...

Ruin probabilities in risk models quantify the likelihood that an insurer’s reserves will be exhausted in the face of unpredictable and potentially large claims. These models lie at the heart of ...

"Yes or no: was there once life on Mars?" I can't say. "What about intelligent life?"' That seems most unlikely, but again, I can't really say. The simple yes-or-no framework has no place for shadings ...

Australia’s catastrophic east coast floods have been described by the NSW premier as a “one in 1,000-year event, a term that has created a great deal of confusion. Lengthy explanations that these ...

In 2011, when President Obama was presented with circumstantial evidence of Osama bin Laden's whereabouts, he faced a range of estimates — anywhere from 30 to 95 percent that the man spotted in the ...