Markets, as always, are focusing on what they can most easily quantify — the oil price. The consensus, which seems sensible to us, is that while prices might go higher from here, the chance of a big spiralling increase is quite low.

U.S. oil prices already jumped last week, which could cause prices at the pump to rise about 20 cents a gallon in the coming weeks, according to one estimate.

Crude oil futures jumped more than 3% Sunday after Israel struck two natural gas facilities in Iran, raising fears that the war will expand to energy infrastructure and disrupt supplies in the region.